73% of Americans are already immune to COVID omicron variant, according to computer model

02/22/2022 / By Kevin Hughes

Has the United States turned the corner on the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic? At least one computer model suggests that if America doesn’t get another highly transmissible variant, then almost three-quarters of Americans are likely immune to the omicron variant.

However, there are still seven million people with a suppressed immune system that may be susceptible to it.

Almost half of the qualified people in the U.S. have taken booster shots against COVID-19. Moreover, about 80 million people have had confirmed infections, with even more unconfirmed cases. A computer simulation by the University of Washington‘s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation shows that 73 percent of Americans are now immune to omicron, and it could increase to 80 percent by mid-March.

“We have changed. We have been exposed to this virus and we know how to deal with it. I am optimistic even if we have a surge in summer. Cases will go up, but hospitalizations and deaths will not,” said Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle.

However, there are still tens of millions of unvaccinated or unexposed people who are vulnerable to COVID-19.

Nearly three percent of adults in the U.S. are on immunosuppressive drugs to treat cancer or autoimmune diseases or to prevent the body from rejecting transplants or stem cells. That’s equivalent to seven million people, and it doesn’t involve those with HIV and 450 other genetic diseases. (Related: Omicron variant of COVID threatens post-lockdown economic recovery.)

Big Pharma still wants to make money from omicron

Moderna hints that an omicron-specific booster shot may be ready by August. However, it is still gathering clinical data to decide if that would bring more protection than a fourth dose of the current shot. Preclinical data in monkeys indicates that an omicron-specific shot might not give stronger protection than the existing shots.

“We believe a booster will be needed. I don’t know yet if it is going to be the existing vaccine, omicron-only, or bivalent: Omicron and existing vaccine, two mRNA in one dose,” said Stephane Bancel, Moderna’s chief executive officer.

Moderna also wishes to have a pan-vaccine ready by August 2023 that would shield against COVID-19, influenza and other respiratory illnesses. The company plans to broaden its commercial activities in Europe in hopes of improving sales there.

Meanwhile, Pfizer and BioNTech said their omicron-specific vaccine has been postponed by several weeks due to slower than expected data gathering.

“If the wave ends, that does not mean it can’t begin again. I really don’t see the situation as dramatic anymore,” BioNTech’s CEO Ugur Sahin said, referring to how fast they can develop and modify mRNA vaccines.

Alvea has tried its vaccine against the omicron subvariant BA.2 in animals and wants to start clinical trials in March. It is a DNA vaccine, which is reported to be stable at room temperature for more than three months. The company believes if it gets approval, it will be targeting low- and middle-income countries. The vaccine uses DNA to provide the codes for viral antigens.

“Because our vaccine is extremely simple — just plasmid DNA in a common buffer, the manufacturing process is much more straightforward than for mRNA or viral vector vaccines. In fact, plasmid manufacturing is commonly the first of many steps used to produce mRNA or other vaccines, whereas in our case, it’s the only step. And we estimate that there is sufficient fill/finish capacity around the world to support that part of the process,” a company spokesperson said.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the omicron sub-variant BA.2 has now been detected in 57 countries. The WHO added that in some countries, BA.2 accounts for more than half of sequenced omicron cases.